In 2024, shipping accounted for approximately **3% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions**², equivalent to nearly 1,000 MtCO₂e. Without significant intervention³, this share could rise to 17% by 2050. This trajectory highlights the urgent need for decisive climate action in the maritime sector.
In response to this challenge, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) has adopted ambitious decarbonization targets aimed at reaching net zero “around 2050”, with interim targets for 2030 and 2040. This transition aligns with the typical lifespan of a vessel, making the next two decades a critical period for investment and innovation. The true catalyst for change will be the recently approved global carbon-pricing mechanism, which is expected to fundamentally reshape investment decisions, operating strategies and fuel choices across the industry.
Produced in partnership with New Energies Coalition, this report summarizes the key findings of a study assessing the costs and implications of decarbonizing maritime transport. It addresses three central questions:
Nature of the transition What changes in fuels and technologies will the maritime sector adopt, and what costs will they entail?
Economic impacts How will decarbonization affect costs for carriers and the price of transported goods across different cargo types and trade routes?
Role of public policy and finance How can industry, public decision-makers and financiers work together to reduce costs and accelerate decarbonization?
The study analyzed the total cost of ownership (TCO) for transporting a car and a 20-foot container (as well as the goods transported: a pair of shoes and a car tire) across three trade routes (intra-EU, Asia–EU and US–EU). It also assessed different decarbonization options, including alternative fuels, electric propulsion, wind-assisted propulsion and onboard carbon capture.
This study sheds light on the economic implications of decarbonizing maritime transport, the interplay between regulatory frameworks and financing mechanisms, and the potential knock-on effects on the prices of everyday goods.
What are the key findings?
Decarbonizing maritime transport will inevitably entail additional costs, reflecting the current—and near-term—reality of sustainable fuel markets and production capacity, as well as emissions-reduction technologies.
“Bio” options (e.g. bio-LNG) could increase the costs of long-haul vessels by 50%, while “e” options (e.g. e-methanol / e-methane) could increase them by 120%.
As a result, meeting the IMO’s targets will increase average maritime transport costs through a combination of emissions-reduction solutions.
Carbon abatement costs for long-haul routes range from $200 to $700/tCO₂e, resulting in an average increase in maritime transport costs of around 20% in 2030 and 50% in 2040.
However, decarbonization could cost less than inaction, as penalties for continuing to use fossil fuels under current and emerging IMO and EU policies are expected to be significant.
Inaction could lead to a 120% increase in costs by 2040 on long-haul routes, compared with 50% if proactive measures are implemented.
Ultimately, the impact on transport costs and the prices of goods will remain limited, because maritime costs account for only a small share of a product’s total price—and decarbonization affects only part of those costs (excluding, for example, port handling fees).
For the goods analyzed, the impact of decarbonization on product prices is estimated at less than 0.5%.
